The Effect of the Draw  


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Analysis of the Draw Advantage


Flat Racing 2009-2019

Ascot
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m2f   1m4f   2m 
Ayr
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m2f   1m3f   1m5f   1m7f 
Bath
 5f   6f   1m   1m2f   1m4f   1m5f   2m1f 
Beverley
 5f   7f   1m   1m2f   1m4f   2m 
Brighton
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m2f   1m4f 
Carlisle
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m4f 
Catterick
 5f   6f   7f   1m4f   1m6f   2m 
Chepstow
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m2f   1m4f 
Chester
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m2f   1m4f 
Doncaster
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m2f   1m4f   1m7f   2m 
Epsom
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m2f   1m4f 
Goodwood
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m1f   1m2f   1m3f   1m4f   1m6f   2m 
Hamilton
 5f   6f   1m   1m1f   1m3f   1m4f   1m5f 
Haydock
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m3f   1m4f   1m6f 
Kempton (AW)
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m2f   1m4f 
Leicester
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m2f   1m4f 
Lingfield (Turf)
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m1f   1m2f   1m3f   1m6f   2m 
Lingfield (AW)
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m2f   1m4f   1m5f   2m 
Musselburgh
 5f   7f   1m   1m1f   1m4f   1m6f   2m 
Newbury
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m1f   1m2f   1m3f   1m4f   1m5f   2m 
Newcastle
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m2f   1m4f   2m 
Newmarket (July course)
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m2f   1m4f   1m7f 
Newmarket (Rowley Mile course)
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m2f   1m4f   1m6f   2m 
Nottingham
 5f   6f   1m   1m2f   1m6f   2m 
Pontefract
 5f   6f   1m   1m2f   1m4f   2m1f   2m2f 
Redcar
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m1f   1m2f   1m3f   1m6f   2m 
Ripon
 5f   6f   1m   1m1f   1m2f   1m4f   2m 
Salisbury
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m2f   1m4f   1m6f 
Sandown
 5f   7f   1m   1m2f   1m3f   1m6f   2m 
Southwell (AW)
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m3f   1m4f   1m6f   2m 
Thirsk
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m4f   2m 
Warwick
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m2f   1m3f   1m4f   1m5f   1m7f   2m 
Windsor
 5f   6f   1m   1m2f   1m4f 
Wolverhampton (AW)
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m1f   1m4f   1m7f   2m 
Yarmouth
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m2f   1m3f   1m6f   2m 
York
 5f   6f   7f   1m   1m1f   1m2f   1m4f   1m6f 

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The draw can have a significant effect on the outcome of races at certain courses.

I have analysed the effect of the draw for some distances at some courses. Click on the links on the left for details.

 

Example/Explanation :

Chester   5f

All Races  (147 Races)

Draw Percentage of Other Runners Beaten Percentage Return at SP
Low61%118%
.....62%121%
Low to Middle58%111%
.....53%72%
Middle53%91%
.....47%74%
Middle to High41%62%
.....39%56%
High33%50%

This table contains the analysis for 5f races at Chester. All of the runners in all of the races have been divided in to 9 categories depending on their draw (from 'Low' through 'Middle' to 'High').

The middle column indicates what percentage of the other horses are beaten by the horses in each of the 9 categories. If the draw had no effect,  this column would contain 50% for each category. A number above 50% indicates an advantage, a number below 50% indicates a disadvantage. In this case, the data indicates that horses drawn low have a significant advantage, horses drawn high have a big disadvantage.

The right hand column indicates how much money you would have made or lost by backing all of the runners in each category at SP. A return of 100% indicates breaking even. Remember that you want a high return if you are backing horses or a low return if you are laying horses (on betting exchanges). In this case, backers should be looking for horses with a low(ish) draw.

It is not surprising that horses with a low (inside) draw have an advantage in 5f races at Chester. The course is circular and horses starting on the inside have less distance to run and are less likely to meet trouble in running. It is surprising, however, that blindly backing low drawn horses is a profitable strategy. This is because 'everybody knows' that a low draw is an advantage at Chester and you would expect the odds to reflect this. In fact, the odds on offer for low drawn horses may be less than they would otherwise be, but they are not low enough to truly reflect the draw advantage.

Sometimes, the draw advantage for a particular distance at a particular course varies depending on the going or the number of runners in the race. I have generated separate tables for small races, large races, races on soft going and races on firm going.






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adrian@adrianmassey.com