The Effect of the Draw |
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Analysis of the Draw Advantage Flat Racing 2013-2022 Ascot 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m2f 1m4f 2m Ayr 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m2f 1m3f 1m5f 1m7f Bath 5f 6f 1m 1m2f 1m4f 1m5f 2m1f Beverley 5f 7f 1m 1m2f 1m4f 2m Brighton 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m2f 1m4f Carlisle 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m4f Catterick 5f 6f 7f 1m4f 1m6f 2m Chepstow 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m2f 1m4f Chester 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m2f 1m4f Doncaster 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m2f 1m4f 1m7f 2m Epsom 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m2f 1m4f Goodwood 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m1f 1m2f 1m3f 1m4f 1m6f 2m Hamilton 5f 6f 1m 1m1f 1m3f 1m4f 1m5f Haydock 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m3f 1m4f 1m6f Kempton (AW) 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m2f 1m4f Leicester 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m2f 1m4f Lingfield (Turf) 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m1f 1m2f 1m3f 1m6f 2m Lingfield (AW) 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m2f 1m4f 1m5f 2m Musselburgh 5f 7f 1m 1m1f 1m4f 1m6f 2m Newbury 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m1f 1m2f 1m3f 1m4f 1m5f 2m Newcastle 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m2f 1m4f 2m Newmarket (July course) 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m2f 1m4f 1m7f Newmarket (Rowley Mile course) 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m2f 1m4f 1m6f 2m Nottingham 5f 6f 1m 1m2f 1m6f 2m Pontefract 5f 6f 1m 1m2f 1m4f 2m1f 2m2f Redcar 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m1f 1m2f 1m3f 1m6f 2m Ripon 5f 6f 1m 1m1f 1m2f 1m4f 2m Salisbury 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m2f 1m4f 1m6f Sandown 5f 7f 1m 1m2f 1m3f 1m6f 2m Southwell (AW) 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m3f 1m4f 1m6f 2m Thirsk 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m4f 2m Warwick 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m2f 1m3f 1m4f 1m5f 1m7f 2m Windsor 5f 6f 1m 1m2f 1m4f Wolverhampton (AW) 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m1f 1m4f 1m7f 2m Yarmouth 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m2f 1m3f 1m6f 2m York 5f 6f 7f 1m 1m1f 1m2f 1m4f 1m6f Generate Custom Report |
The draw can have a significant effect on the outcome of races at certain courses. I have analysed the effect of
the draw for some distances at some courses. Click on the links on the
left for details.
Example/Explanation : Chester 5fAll Races (147 Races)
This table contains the analysis for 5f races at Chester. All of the runners in all of the races have been divided in to 9 categories depending on their draw (from 'Low' through 'Middle' to 'High'). The middle column indicates what percentage of the other horses are beaten by the horses in each of the 9 categories. If the draw had no effect, this column would contain 50% for each category. A number above 50% indicates an advantage, a number below 50% indicates a disadvantage. In this case, the data indicates that horses drawn low have a significant advantage, horses drawn high have a big disadvantage. The right hand column indicates how much money you would have made or lost by backing all of the runners in each category at SP. A return of 100% indicates breaking even. Remember that you want a high return if you are backing horses or a low return if you are laying horses (on betting exchanges). In this case, backers should be looking for horses with a low(ish) draw. It is not surprising that horses with a low (inside) draw have an advantage in 5f races at Chester. The course is circular and horses starting on the inside have less distance to run and are less likely to meet trouble in running. It is surprising, however, that blindly backing low drawn horses is a profitable strategy. This is because 'everybody knows' that a low draw is an advantage at Chester and you would expect the odds to reflect this. In fact, the odds on offer for low drawn horses may be less than they would otherwise be, but they are not low enough to truly reflect the draw advantage. Sometimes, the draw advantage for a particular distance at a particular course varies depending on the going or the number of runners in the race. I have generated separate tables for small races, large races, races on soft going and races on firm going.
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