It is well known that some jockeys ride a lot more winners than others.
That might be because they are better jockeys, but it might be because
they are riding better horses or just riding a lot more often than
the other jockeys. Some jockeys have many followers, so horses they ride,
tend to have SPs which are shorter than they otherwise would be.
Some jockeys have few followers so their mounts tend to have SPs
which are longer than they otherwise would be. What is important for
the backer (or layer) is to know whether a particular jockey performs
better or worse than expected according to the SPs of the horses that
they ride. For example, does Jockey A tend to perform better or worse
than Jockey B on 10-1 shots.
These ratings are an attempt to indicate which jockeys are
better or worse than average, taking into account the SPs of the
horses that they ride.
The ratings are calculated as follows :
Firstly, by analysing a lot of races, I have calculated the average finishing
position of horses at all different values of SP. The finishing
positions are expressed in 3 different ways :
-
Win Percentage. For example, Horses with a SP of 3-1 on average may win
23% of the time.
-
Place Percentage. For example, Horses with a SP of 6-4 on average may be
placed 62% of the time.
-
Percentage of Other Horses Beaten. For
example, in an 11 runner race, the winner has beaten 100% of the other
horses, the horse on last place has beaten 0% of the other horses, while
the horse in 6th place has beaten 50% of the other horses (5 in front and
5 behind). It may be that horses with a SP of 2-1 beat 78% of the other
horses on average while horses at 10-1 beat 37%.
Secondly, the finishing position of each of a particular jockey's mounts
are compared to the average for horses at that SP. Taking an average
of these comparisons gives a rating for the jockey. A rating greater than
100 indicates that the jockey tends to finish in a better position
than average, while a rating less than 100 indicates that the jockey tends to
finish in a worse position. Jockeys with higher ratings should give
better value to the backer.
Click on the link on the left for ratings.
The Jockey Form links on the left lead to pages giving the recent form of jockeys.
The Custom Report link allows the performances of an individual jockey,
or jockey/trainer combination, to be analysed.

adrian@adrianmassey.com
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